ForecastEx LLC, a subsidiary of Interactive Brokers, has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as a contract market and derivative clearing organisation. ForecastEx will commence operations on Monday, July 8, 2024. Interactive Brokers clients from eligible countries will have immediate access, making Interactive Brokers the first Futures Commission Merchant to join as an exchange member.
ForecastEx LLC, a subsidiary of Interactive Brokers, has been approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as a contract market and derivative clearing organisation. Starting operations on July 8, 2024, ForecastEx will offer Interactive Brokers clients from eligible countries immediate access to its prediction market platform.
ForecastEx has been developing for nearly a decade. It aims to enhance future planning through market-based consensus predictions. The platform will feature simple and intuitive contracts, allowing users to bet on the outcomes of various events, such as economic indicators and climate variables.
If an investor believes an event will occur, such as a rise in the US Consumer Price Index above a specified level, they can purchase a “yes” contract. Conversely, if they think the event will not happen, they can buy a “no” contract. The prices of these contracts range from $0.02 to $0.99. Contracts will settle at $1 for correct predictions and $0 for incorrect ones.
ForecastEx will initially cover a range of economic and climate indicators, with plans to expand internationally and include more controversial global issues post-launch. Interactive Brokers will offer interest payments on the closing market value of positions, ensuring a seamless and beneficial experience for users.
The contracts offered by ForecastEx include the following:
| Category | Indicators |
| Economic | US Fed Funds Target Rate |
| US Consumer Sentiment | |
| US Housing Starts | |
| US Retail Sales | |
| US Building Permits | |
| US Consumer Price Index | |
| US Payroll Employment | |
| US Unemployment Rate | |
| US Corporate Profits | |
| US Initial Jobless Claims | |
| US National Debt | |
| US Real GDP | |
| Climate | Global Temperature |
| US Temperature | |
| Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide |
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Here is what it means for users.
ForecastEx opens a new avenue for traders to speculate on various economic and climate indicators. This can particularly appeal to traders looking to diversify their portfolios with innovative trading instruments.
The platform offers a unique method for hedging against economic risks. By participating in prediction markets, traders can protect their portfolios from unexpected economic events and market volatility.
With the ability to buy ‘yes’ or ‘no’ contracts based on event predictions, traders can profit from their insights and market judgments. Correct predictions settle at $1 per contract, while incorrect ones settle at $0, providing clear and straightforward outcomes.
Interactive Brokers will pay interest at 0.5% below the prevailing Fed Funds rate on the closing market value of positions. This additional income can enhance overall returns for traders holding positions on ForecastEx.
Traders can choose from various contract durations for flexibility in trading strategies and to plan for market movements.
As ForecastEx expands internationally, traders will have more markets to participate in, offering further opportunities for profit and hedging.
ForecastEx LLC is a subsidiary of Interactive Brokers. ForecastEx aims to expand globally, addressing local and global subjects to enhance the platform’s usability and provide a comprehensive perspective of market expectations across various issues. The company, as a prediction market, has been in development and testing for over a decade and will finally start operating in July 2024.
ForecastEx’s launch marks a significant advancement in the prediction market space, providing traders with innovative tools and opportunities. As the platform expands globally, it is poised to become a vital resource for hedging, speculation, and market insights.
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